2015年5月2日 星期六

POST OCCUPY CENTRAL - DAY 137 (01-05-2015)








Occupy Central

Occupy Central is a civil disobedience movement which began in Hong Kong on September 28, 2014. It calls on thousands of protesters to block roads and paralyse Hong Kong's financial district if the Beijing and Hong Kong governments do not agree to implement universal suffrage for the chief executive election in 2017 and the Legislative Council elections in 2020 according to "international standards." The movement was initiated by Benny Tai Yiu-ting (戴耀), an associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong, in January 2013.



Umbrella Movement



The Umbrella Movement (Chinese: 雨傘運動; pinyin: yǔsǎn yùndòng) is a loose political movement that was created spontaneously during the Hong Kong protests of 2014. Its name derives from the recognition of the umbrella as a symbol of defiance and resistance against the Hong Kong government, and the united grass-roots objection to the decision of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) of 31 August.

The movement consists of individuals numbering in the tens of thousands who participated in the protests that began on 28 September 2014, although Scholarism, the Hong Kong Federation of Students, Occupy Central with Love and Peace,  groups are principally driving the demands for the rescission of the NPCSC decision.


Occupy Central site in Causeway Bay was cleared as police moved in  ...

POST OCCUPY CENTRAL - DAY 137:

Full coverage of the day’s events on 01-05


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Low standards all round in reform war




It is depressing to see the government's campaign over political reforms in retreat once radicals showed how offensively oriented their opposition to them is.
Chief secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and senior officials got a taste of those tactics, when they were forced to hole up in their open-top bus during a local version of a US-style whistle-stop tour on Saturday to campaign for passage of the reforms.

Then, photos of a visit to Shau Kei Wan by home affairs chief Tsang Tak- sing were issued only after it ended, without the media being informed of the trip beforehand.

How can the government hope to get its message on the urgency of those reforms across to the public like this?

But, sadly, this has become an all too common phenomenon in the public opinion war over political reforms.

Predictably, pan-democrats campaigning against the reforms on the streets will face similar sieges by government supporters.

Will such tactics help overcome the current impasse?

Both the government and pan- democrats know that answer.

They know that the war for the hearts and minds of the public will, at most, appeal to their own supporters and set their stances in stone in a way that makes a compromise even harder.

Are they doing all this with a view to the district council election in November and not the 2017 chief executive election reforms, which are actually more crucial?

A purely offensive strategy without any effort at a political compromise can only mean no winners. If both sides are still willing to start meaningful talks in search of a compromise, now is still not too late.

There is no doubt the government's hands in unveiling the package are firmly tied by Beijing's unpopular decision.

But Lam still managed to offer something new.

For example, the bar for admission to the nomination competition process has been lowered to 120 of the 1,200-strong nomination committee.

That theoretically means up to 10 people can vie for election in a compromise aimed at including pan-democrats in at least the first of the two-phase nomination process.

In the second phase, committee members will vote on each candidate separately. This is also more liberal than other alternatives mentioned previously.

Given Beijing's controls, these are perhaps the best that Lam can achieve at this stage. While it's a hard sell for the best-paid saleswoman in town, are Beijing's strictures set in stone?

For many, what's incomprehensible is the low threshold set for election of the chief executive, for a person can be the winner even if he or she does not have more than half of the votes cast.

Pan-democrats have been quick to point out a candidate with slightly over 20 percent of the votes can win should 40 percent of the votes cast be blank. This is an extreme example that is very unlikely.

But there is a moral hazard in the low threshold: the chief executive cannot claim to have the support of the majority of the people of Hong Kong, so the lack of moral authority plaguing the present chief executive is not addressed.

The system is already impermeable under the August 31 decision. Is it really necessary to set such a low bar for electing the chief executive?



Retail faces new headwinds from north




Local retail stocks slumped yesterday on news that Beijing will soon cut import tariffs on some consumer products.

Share prices of cosmetic retailers like Sa Sa and Bonjour plunged. Ditto mall landlords such as Wharf Holdings and Hysan Development.

Investors know what the news means in a flash.

For, by reducing tariffs on goods like cosmetics and fashion, Premier Li Keqiang hopes mainlanders who splurge on overseas shopping trips will spend their money at home instead.

While it's clear that Li is doing everything possible to support an economy that has obviously slowed down, the move is anything but timely for Hong Kong retailers hit by a plunge in the number of mainland shoppers.

The news is a rare instance of Hong Kong and Beijing policy interests moving in opposite directions.

The tariff reduction will start with some consumer products by the end of June, well after the upcoming Labor Day Golden Week holiday that local retailers are monitoring closely with nervousness.

Can the "Happy@Hong Kong Super Jetso" promotion by the Hong Kong Tourism Board to reboot the industry succeed in the mission?

I do not think so - not because of the rather clumsy name of the campaign - but due to experience telling us that the effect of stopgap measures don't normally last long.

The same cannot, however, be said of the impact of the tariff cuts.

I wish I was wrong.

However, Tourism Board chairman Peter Lam Kin-ngok appears to agree with me on this as he has admitted he is unsure if the campaign will do the trick.

I agree with Lam that the move would be better than doing nothing, given the board has been given millions of dollars by the government to promote Hong Kong.

Lam and his staff may deserve a pat on the back for getting so many shops and outlets to join in the five-week promotion at such short notice, no matter how doubtful the result will be at the end of the period.

If the retail sector is looking for clues in the May Day holiday starting this evening, the signs are not promising.

Hotels have yet to fill up their rooms. They are, so far, only about 80 percent full for May 1 and 2, with some under pressure to reduce rack rates to fill the rooms.

According to the travel industry, there are also fewer mainland tour groups signing up to come over the border.

It's understandable why fewer mainlanders are coming.

For who would like to be scolded while shopping around?

While it will be fine for Lam to spend the rest of his budget promoting the SAR, greater efforts are required elsewhere in the search of a solution that is better than this campaign.

This will be a job that better fits the job description of commerce secretary Gregory So Kam-leung than Lam.

Is it possible for So to take the cue from the premier to find a better way to encourage local spending at the same time?


In the long term, the retail sector will have to shift its focus back to local customers.
















EJ Insight


A pro-government rally in Mei Foo ended in chaos last Thursday when some groups opposed to the 2017 electoral plan joined and raised their own slogans.
A pro-government rally in Mei Foo ended in chaos last Thursday when some groups opposed to the 2017 electoral plan joined and raised their own slogans.

How HK is pulling out all stops to push the electoral plan



Shortly after the government unveiled the 2017 electoral reform package, virtually all of Hong Kong media, including HKEJ, rushed to join the “pocket it first” chorus.
I have never seen such a scene before in which different newspapers were speaking along the same line. If the media can be taken as a truthful reflection of the public view, then the mission handed down by Beijing to garner support from the majority of the people has already been accomplished.
The next thing is to rope in key figures in vital elite circles, including business “tai-pan”, social group leaders and other celebrities, to ensure that the package will gain endorsement from “broadly representative” members of the society.
To wage such a mass campaign to shape public views, a well-trodden process is to dispatch reporters from “trusted” media outlets to interview key public figures and pose questions in an interrogative manner.
The big shots will surely take side with Beijing or at least stay politically correct in their remarks as they know that such a strategy will be critical to safeguard their core personal interests.
Efforts targeting these elites would also be aligned by campaigns among the middle class and grassroots, like an extensive web of street booths to reach out to all residents. Then there must be free banquets, galas and community activities – sponsored by public and private funds – to create a favorable atmosphere in all districts.
The farce last Thursday in Mei Foo — which saw Leung Chun-ying and Carrie Lam attend a pro-government rally and exhort the crowd to support the package, using mainland-style revolutionary songs and performances — in fact marked the first such campaign in a largely middle class residential neighborhood.
With all these, public figures can then take stage to show their patriotism. This is how the Basic Law’s requirement of “broadly representativeness” in the chief executive election is realized. And, the government has many tailor-made opinion poll results as proof of the public’s acceptance of the proposal, though it is another matter that none of the polls are reliable.
The government has virtually unlimited manpower and financial recourses at its disposal for the contest to mobilize the entire society while the pan-democratic camp simply cannot stand a chance for comparison in this regard. Also, some key opposition members are still being held back by fabricated political-donation lawsuits.
The scale of the territory-wide campaign being launched is reminiscent of the grand events celebrating the 1997 handover. But the difference is that back then the majority of the society genuinely enjoyed the events as they, including most of the democrats, supported the reunification.
Now, it is another situation and things are not the same.
The media’s uniform stance and local elites’ words of allegiance are more of a reflection of authorities’ ability to tame influential voices, rather than mirroring the popular mood.










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